The Royal Society has an exhibit on “how and when probabilities can be deduced, and the role of computer models” in deriving confident climate change predictions from uncertain data. This sounds most interesting!
The full blurb is unintentionally hillarious:
Nowadays scientists are looked to as a source of forecasts, and over recent decades computer models have become their greatest tool. But computer models are different from reality, and experiments with computer models are different from experiments on reality.
I’m sorry, I’m only a computer programmer, but isn’t the idea of a model to be a model of reality?
But it goes on (with my emphasis):
How does it work?
Mankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are warming the planet. This in turn will change the local climate we experience all around the globe. In the globalised society we live in we will feel the consequences not only as a result of local changes but also as a result of impacts in distant places.
Thus we can confidently know that climate change poses a significant threat to our society; to the way we live.
You say it is, and it will, and thus we confidently know? Very scientific.
On twitter they are @summerscience.