Quick Thoughts on Bradford

And so it came to pass that the people of Bradford West did deem it best served there interests to return George ‘the disappearance of the Soviet Union is the biggest catastrophe of my life’ Galloway as their member of Parliament. There has been a lot of analysis of this event in the press today, I have three main thoughts on this matter.

First, much as I despise then man and everything he stands for, his success is worthy of respect (no pun intended!) and a clear example for small parties and independents of how to win a campaign. Like the Greens showed in 2010, focus on a seat where your supporters are numerous and throw all your resources at it. It will be interesting to see if other parties can pull this off in future, and we should ask which areas are most fertile for Libertarian candidates.

Secondly despite it being dismissed as a one-off I think that the 3 main parties are in a death spiral and will continue to haemorrhage support. There is also a problem of the balkanization of the UK – SNP in Scotland, Labour in Northern England and Conservatives in Southern England. It will be increasingly difficult for any one party to form a government in future, and the lack of competition in their home territories will lead to further apathy.

Finally Ed Miliband’s position looking very uncertain, if Ken looses to Boris in May I doubt he will be leader by the end of the year. The outcome of the next General election is his to lose, and Labour are coming round to the fact. If he is replaced I can’t see the Tories winning in 2015 (most likely scenario IMO is Lib-dem wipeout and Labour biggest party, forming a pact with the Nationalists and maybe Greens)

As usual interesting times ahead

Tags:

Elections

Date:

March 30, 2012

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11 responses to “Quick Thoughts on Bradford”

Rob Waller

March 31, 2012 at 1:44 pm

The concept of Labour getting back into power after the all round cluster f*ck they made of the economy is baffling. But it just shows how awful the Tories are under Cameron.

I’m not sure the Lib Dems will be wiped out at the next election because I don’t think Labour can halt their slide to the left. My feeling is 2015 will see a far lower turnout and probably another hung parliament.

If England is to make any progress we need Scottish independence. Then at least we can vote in a proper Tory government that may implement some financially sensible policies — even if we have to put up with their social conservatism.

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1. Andy Janes
  
  March 31, 2012 at 6:35 pm
  
  Rob look at the latest opinion polls-
  
  http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
  
  http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  
  I’d a fan of the union and would rather not have it end, but agree there need to be changes- either English votes for English issues or a full devolved parliament (my preference is for a federal gov including all the overseas territories dealing with just defence and foreign releations. If it has no say on internal matters it wouldn’t matter too much who runs it)
  
  Oh, and if Labour do win in 2015 I’m emigrating!
  
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  1. Andy Janes
    
    March 31, 2012 at 6:39 pm
    
    Oh and one final prediction- If Boris wins in London I expect him to stand as an MP in 2015 and stand for Tory party leader if Cameron looses the election
    
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Dan T

March 31, 2012 at 3:11 pm

I’m aware Andy Janes is a chickenhawk & won’t share my view, but I for one quite like the fact that Labour’s warmongering has cost them Bradford West. Galloway also opposed the bank bailouts conducted under a Labour government.

Galloway likes dictators, but the real problem there is that he likes the dictators everyone else dislikes or, in Saddam’s case, he likes them at the wrong time. I wish all politicians were judged by the same standard Galloway is in that regard.

Labour & the Tories are hiding behind FPTP now more than ever.

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1. Andy Janes
  
  March 31, 2012 at 6:02 pm
  
  There were logical reasons for oposing the Iraq war (not that I agreed with them), but Galloway was just plain Pro-Saddam.
  
  Oh, and I’m a chickenhawk am I? Screw you!
  
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  1. Dan T
    
    March 31, 2012 at 6:28 pm
    
    I’m sorry, but I didn’t think either neocon or liberal interventionist were fair to you & I couldn’t think of another term to describe your position.
    
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  2. Andy Janes
    
    March 31, 2012 at 6:41 pm
    
    Well I haven’t really gone into much depth on my views on this (another one of those posts that needs finishing….)
    
    I don’t mind liberal interventionist or liberal hawk though
    
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  3. Dan T
    
    March 31, 2012 at 6:45 pm
    
    As you will. I believe that a lot of the Blairites use the term liberal interventionist to describe themselves. Oliver Kamm certainly does. That is why I refrained from using it.
    
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  4. Ken Ferguson
    
    April 1, 2012 at 8:32 am
    
    I am delighted to see an independent candidate win over the party machines no matter what their platform.
    
    In fact, I think libertarians have as much in common with Galloway as with any of the rest of them- anti state corporatism, anti imperialist intervention etc
    
    And if Andy, or anybody else, is a pro-interventionist in foreign policy let him put the argument up here and we can have a go at shooting it down.
    
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  5. Richard Carey
    
    April 1, 2012 at 2:29 pm
    
    I must say, I quite like George. I don’t share his socialism of course, but I agree with him on the wars of the last years. Politics makes for strange bed-fellows, and there’s nothing more important in politics than war.
    
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Tim Carpenter

April 1, 2012 at 1:14 am

My biggest concern is balkanisation.

North-south and Scotland can be managed in extremis. Yes, by breaking up the union if countries want to go. I think they will not want full independence becase the south is the gift that just keeps on giving. If we have full breakup, the EU will be bankrolling it, and do not think that is out of the question.

It is when it gets ethnic and religious one has to really worry. That is sectarian and we know where that leads.

Galloway is exploiting a situation. He has opened the door to another independent to step in after him and I doubt they will be a Scotsman.

However, Respect did not endure in Tower Hamlets. But look there and see how politics is now conducted. It is a disgrace. There are many people AFAICT in TH who utterly reject this pollution of their local politics, and these people come from the areas those polluting profess to represent.

I have hope for TH if the good decent people can prevail. I also hope the good decent people of Bradford will find their voice, too.

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