Trump will win

The polls are too close. There is probably, with an apology to all Conservatives, a strong shy-Tory effect. The FBI “exoneration” of Hillary is probably nonsense and favours Trump.

I would rather it was Hillary. If Hillary won it would have the benefit of left-wing policies, and their consequences, being blamed on an establishment left-wing candidate. Another Trump would not occur next time and we’d have a better outcome in the end. The Alt-Right and the Tea-Party tendency would be around to mitigate Hillary* so the medium term will be not as bad as one fears.

Gary won’t do so well.

So Hillary is the least worst candidate of the two, I would have voted for Gary Johnson, but Trump will win.

If he loses he will be significantly stronger on vote share than in the electoral college and people will be pissed about that.

But what the hell do I know?

* one also assumed the mainstream would be around to mitigate dodgy Brexiteers but May seems intent on pandering to them. Let’s hope Hillary does not pander to the Alt-Right.

LATER playing about with some stats I got to a result 299 vs 239 electoral college votes.


  1. It is a difficult choice for the left; support a capitalist or an imperialist. Oddly enough, the European media is going for the interventionist, gun rattling, pay-for-play corruption of a Clinton office. I would claim that Hillary is by far the more dangerous candidate, and any failures of her term would be deflected by the same old claims of racism that the Democrats have built their platform on for the last 50 years.

    Hillary is definitely the WW3 candidate.



  2. I agree, Trump will win. It’s Brexit all over again with people reluctant to be straight with pollsters about the seemingly unpopular choice. There’s also the fact that polling companies assume that people who’ve never voted won’t vote this time either. But like Brexit, there’ll be a lot of people who’d previously given up on voting who will come out this time. It’ll be tight and we may not know for sure till 36 hours after the polls close, but I’ll go 285 delegates for Trump.



  3. Sorry to burst your bubble, people, but there’s very little chance of Trump winning. He’ll have to win not only Ohio (which he probably will) and Florida (which he probably won’t), but also Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, and then a few smaller states. That’s highly unlikely. My prediction: Hillary wins with 298 or 304 (if she wins Nevada) EVs. Gary Johnson gets %2 of the popular vote.



  4. A very brave prediction Simon.

    And you are certainly correct about one thing – both candidates are wild government spending ever-bigger-government people.

    Bankruptcy either way.



    1. Well, I hope nobody makes any bets on the basis of my gut feelings and finger in the air estimations. I hope the piece was labelled sufficiently clearly as such. However, on national vote share the gap – 3% – seems smaller than the potential for error and the errors I think will go one way.

      Razi and Nico have made more thoughtful contributions.



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